These American cities are “slowly dying”! The population is expected to decline significantly by 2035
In recent years, extreme weather events brought about by climate change have become more frequent. Floods have inundated once-bustling neighborhoods, scorching heat has left city dwellers miserable, and raging wildfires have displaced families. These natural disasters have not only caused direct physical damage, but also had a profound impact on people’s mental health and social stability.
The ebb and flow
New research shows that climate change is making people more likely to “avoid harm” when choosing a place to live, giving up the “danger zone” where floods, high temperatures and wildfires are more likely to occur in favor of cities with a more suitable climate.
Climate change is expected to reshape the face of American cities in the coming years and lead to a redistribution of population patterns across cities.
The exodus from popular waterside attractions, which are prone to flooding, is accelerating and some cities are “slowly dying” as a direct result, with many cities set to look “very different” in just a few decades, according to scientists.
Cities and areas such as Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Providence and Las Vegas are likely to experience the largest exodus due to flood risk. At the same time, relatively “safe zones” like Jefferson County in Louisville, Ky., are seeing an influx of new residents.
The First Street Foundation is a non-profit organization dedicated to increasing public awareness of and resilience to climate change and natural disaster risks by providing scientific data and information on these risks.
As head of the foundation’s Climate impact unit, Dr. Jeremy Porter compiled the peer-reviewed report. He says people are increasingly moving based on climate factors. In the last five years, people have really started to look at climate data as something that influences their actions.
Change intensification
The report says that when you combine the flood risk with the projected distribution of the population you’ve seen, it’s interesting to see how much has changed in some places.
The polls bear this out. Survey results show that 80 percent of Americans consider climate risk when looking for a new home, while a study published by Forbes revealed that 30 percent of homeowners said climate change was the reason they moved.
The First Street Foundation study lists 10 metropolitan areas where people are fleeing at an accelerating rate. People are leaving these places in droves due to climate change, with climate events disrupting their lives and leading to increasing risks to their business.
Dr Porter said the report only looked at flooding as a reason for driving people to leave, but the researchers added that there were clear indications that wildfires and extreme heat were also major drivers of internal migration.
Hennepin and Ramsey counties in Minneapolis, Minnesota, ranked first and second, respectively, because of their proximity to the Mississippi River, where levees are often breached.
Climate change is exacerbating the problem. A warmer atmosphere means big storms bring more rain, flooding sewer systems.
The researchers determined that the two Minneapolis counties, which cover much of the downtown area, are projected to have the largest population declines by 2035. The number of blocks in Hennepin County that are defined as “climate abandoned” is expected to increase from 23 percent today to 56.9 percent by 2053. Ramsey County will have 54.3 percent of its neighborhoods displaced by 2053.
Transformation opportunity
Dr. Porter says areas where the weather has accelerated the exodus are facing job losses and dwindling resources.
The United States suffered 23 disasters in eight months in 2023, each costing at least $1 billion, surpassing the previous annual record of 22 disasters set in 2022, with losses in the high 10 figures.
Here is a vivid example: West Alton, a flood-ravaged town on the bend of the Mississippi River in Ramsey County, has seen its population plummet from 3,900 in 1970 to 360 this year. All three churches in the town have been closed, and many of the remaining houses are on stilts to protect them from flooding.
Patrick Nunnally, a retired lecturer at the University of Minnesota and an expert on the Mississippi River, said towns that previously thrived on the Mississippi River now “pretty much no longer exist.”
The First Street Foundation’s report determined that Marion County in Indianapolis ranks third in the list of counties most affected by population loss due to negative climate impacts. The number of blocks in the county defined as “climate abandoned areas” is projected to increase from 15.3 percent today to 39 percent by 2053.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee County, the largest city in the heart of Wisconsin, came in fourth, followed by Providence County, Rhode Island, and Clark County, Las Vegas.
Dr. Porter explained that some cities are far from major rivers or coastlines but enter the population loss rankings mainly because they are prone to “flooding” caused by rainwater flooding sewage systems.
While climate change poses many challenges, it also offers new opportunities for urban development. Some experts believe that climate change is forcing a rethink of the way cities are planned and built, pushing for a more sustainable and resilient model of urban development. “We are experiencing an unprecedented urban transformation, which is not only necessary to combat climate change, but also an opportunity to build better and more sustainable cities.”
Dr Porter said: “Most migrations caused by climate change are highly localised. In fact, only 15 percent of all internal migration is interstate. People tend to stay within their own state.”
At the same time, as Americans leave some areas, others are flooding in.
People flocked to places like Jefferson County in Louisville, Kentucky; Macomb County in Detroit, Michigan; Newark, New Jersey; Oakland County in Detroit; and SAN Mateo County in San Francisco, California
